‘스마트’ 권위주의: 정책 전이/학습으로 본 싱가포르 권위주의 체제 안정성 연구

초록

Ever since its independence in 1965, Singapore has maintained a stable authoritarian regime. The nation serves as a powerful counter example to the Democratic Diffusion Theory, which argues that a country’s democratization process can be influenced by the precedents of its neighboring states. Through historical analysis, this study points out that Singapore has instead taken the collapse of neighboring Southeast Asian authoritarian regimes as cautionary lessons to reinforce its own regime stability. Specifically, this study employs the analytical framework of policy transfer/learning in response to external stimuli. It examines how the governments of Lee Kuan Yew (June 1959–November 1990), Goh Chok Tong (November 1990–August 2004), and Lee Hsien Loong (August 2004–May 2024) each took measures to preserve Singapore’s political system before and after the authoritarian regime collapses in the Philippines (1986), Indonesia (1998), and Malaysia (2018). The analysis finds that all three governments consistently sought to preempt the potential domestic impact of democratization and political upheavals in neighboring states. This involved political repression, media control and limited liberalization aimed at mitigating political discontent. These “smart” measures are products of strategic learning grounded in strong administrative capacity. They have functioned as key factors which rendered Singapore’s authoritarian regime relatively immune to the democratizing influence of its neighbors. The findings of this study complement existing research that primarily focuses on the internal factors of Singapore’s authoritarian persistence and offer significant academic implications for understanding the stability of other highly resilient authoritarian regimes.

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