Playoff Uncertainty and Pennant Races

초록

Outcome uncertainty, a fundamental principle associated with Rottenberg, has many meanings in the sports economics literature. In this article, the authors consider a type of within-season uncertainty termed "playoff uncertainty" (PLU). As with any type of within-season uncertainty, this concept looks at how demanders respond to the probability that their team has a chance of winning over the course of the season. But more specifically, PLU focuses on whether attendance is affected by a team's chance of making the playoffs. Looking at attendance data on a monthly basis, the authors find that a tighter pennant race does enhance league-wide attendance, but only for those months toward the end of the season when the pennant race is heating up.

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