중국의 대외원조 논리: UNGA 투표 이상점을 활용한 분석

초록

By what logic is China's foreign aid allocated? The traditional OECD-DAC framework has difficulty explaining China's foreign aid behavior, such as its continued provision of aid during periods of domestic turmoil. To address this gap, this study analyzes China's foreign aid by employing Patron-Client Network theory and China's unique concept of guanxi. It argues that China's aid goes beyond simple material exchange; rather, it aims to build long-term political ties with client states within an asymmetrical relationship. To measure the guanxi between China and recipient countries within this patron-client network, this study utilizes the ideal point distance between countries, derived from a time-series analysis of United Nations General Assembly voting. A panel data analysis using a random effects model reveals that the ideal point distance has a consistently negative effect on ODA allocation. Furthermore, a supplementary case study on the Belt and Road Initiative demonstrates how these statistical findings operate in China's actual foreign relations. By explaining ODA through the lens of guanxi — the relationship through which China, as a patron, views its recipient client states — this research provides a new perspective on China's foreign aid, which has conventionally been analyzed through traditional frameworks. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of the characteristics of China's foreign aid by empirically demonstrating that it is allocated based on guanxities, as measured by the similarity of foreign policy preferences between countries.

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