글로벌 지경학 변화와 인천지역 물류산업에 대한 영향

초록

This study explores policy responses for Incheon’s logistics industry by analyzing the impact of rising geoeconomic risks—measured by Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) indices—on the region's cargo volume. The analysis shows that increased geoeconomic risk generally leads to a substantial reduction in cargo volumes for both air and sea ports in Incheon and Busan. Specifically, a one-standard-deviation rise in risk results in a 2% decline in exports at Incheon International Airport within a year, compared to sharper declines of 6–8% at Incheon Port and 3– 5% at Busan Port. However, Incheon Airport demonstrated relative resilience due to divergent responses across commodity groups, where exports of machinery and electrical equipment, including semiconductors, increased even as chemical product exports fell. This highlights Incheon Airport’s distinct geoeconomic advantage over seaports and suggests new trade opportunities amid geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.–China conflict. Consequently, the study recommends preemptive, item-specific policy measures. These include strengthening supply chain diversification for risk-sensitive items, leveraging the airport’s geoeconomic advantages to enhance Incheon’s logistics competitiveness, and establishing specialized infrastructure, such as cold chains.

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