서울 주택시장에서 범죄율, 고용 중심성, 그리고 주택가격의 관계 : 공간적 의존성을 고려한 자치구 분석

초록

This study examines how crime rates and employment centrality are associated with housing prices in Seoul while accounting for spatial dependence. Using a district–year panel dataset covering Seoul’s 25 districts from 2019 to 2024, supplemented by transaction-level fixed-effects analyses, the study combines fixed-effects models, spatial diagnostic tests using Moran’s I and LISA, and supplementary spatial econometric models. The results show that housing prices in Seoul exhibit strong and persistent spatial clustering, indicating that local housing markets are embedded in a stable spatial structure rather than determined independently. The findings also show that both crime rates and employment centrality are positively associated with housing prices, even after controlling for demographic and neighborhood-level factors. This suggests that the positive relationship between crime and housing prices cannot be explained simply by the omission of employment centrality. Rather, the results are more consistent with the interpretation that, in a dense metropolitan context, high-priced districts often coincide with areas of concentrated economic activity, accessibility advantages, and higher crime exposure. Additional analyses indicate that this pattern is more pronounced in districts with relatively high levels of employment centrality. Overall, the study suggests that the relationship between crime exposure, safety-related indicators, and housing prices in Seoul should be understood as part of a complex urban spatial structure in which agglomeration benefits and crime exposure are jointly observed.

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