정책모기지 공급이 수도권 주택가격에 미치는 영향 분석: 금리 수준 및 주택 규모별 이질성을 중심으로

초록

This study examines whether policy mortgage supply affects monthly housing price changes (ΔP, %) in the Seoul Metropolitan Area from January 2014 to November 2024, allowing effects to vary by market interest-rate conditions (COFIX) and housing size. Size-specific fixed-effects panel regressions are estimated using one-month lagged (t−1) regressors and region-clustered robust standard errors. Three results emerge. First, a higher policy mortgage ratio (PMR) is significantly associated with higher ΔP across all size segments. Second, COFIX is significantly negatively associated with ΔP in every segment, with larger absolute effects in the mid and mid-small markets. Third, the interaction term (PMR×COFIX) is significantly negative for the large and mid-large segments but significantly positive for the small segment, while it is not statistically significant for the mid and mid-small segments. Overall, policy- mortgage transmission differs by interest-rate environments and housing submarkets, suggesting the value of refined targeting and counter-cyclical operational rules that reflect heterogeneous responses by housing size.

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