The Structural Shifts in Bitcoin’s Role as a Predictor of the KOSPI Index

초록

This paper explores the efficiency of the KOSPI market by examining its predictability, with a focus on the influence of Bitcoin returns during non-trading hours. Utilizing predictive models incorporating many financial assets, we find a significant predictive value in the Bitcoin return for the KOSPI return. We also identify a gradual structural break in the KOSPI-Bitcoin relationship, a shift from traditional market efficiency paradigms. This gradual transition, influenced by recent economic and regulatory changes, underscores potential arbitrage opportunities.

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