Attendance and the Uncertainty-of-Outcome Hypothesis in Baseball

초록

Sports offer interesting insights into demand due to the added twist of fan preferences for outcome uncertainty. We add to and amend previous work by analyzing the time series behavior of Major League Baseball attendance (1901-2003) using break point analysis, exploring a wide variety of measures of game uncertainty, playoff uncertainty, and consecutive season uncertainty. Only playoff uncertainty is statistically significant, and it is economically significant only for (1) truly ambitious intervention and (2) recent history. The policy implication is that actual league choices may be motivated by wealth redistribution rather than concerns over competitive balance.

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