Impact of International System on Democratic Transitions: A Comparative Study between Democratization in Post-Cold War Serbia and Post-Arab Spring Libya

초록

This research investigates the impact of international system on the democratic transitions of Post- Cold War Serbia and Post-Arab Spring Libya. Adopting Steven Levitsky and Lucan Way’s “Linkage and Leverage” model as an analytical point of departure, exogenous structural factors such as ties with the West and susceptibility to Western democratizing influence are assessed and compared in the two cases. The research suggests that nascent democracies such as Serbia’s are far more likely to succeed in a unipolar system where the West, as the global hegemonic force, opts to genuinely engage in active and persistent democracy promotion so long as it serves the West’s own interests. By contrast, more recent democratic transitions in cases such as Libya’s, which transpired in an increasingly multipolar system with waning Western influence and the rising clout of authoritarian powers, must depend far more heavily on favorable domestic factors as well as local political dynamics in order to successfully democratize. Additionally, the study builds upon Levitsky and Way’s framework by exploring the causality of linkage and leverage effects, which is brought about by change in polarity that is created in part by a shift in the US and Western foreign policy towards offshore balancing.

키워드