도발의 유형 재구성: 사활적 이슈와 보복 취약성을 중심으로

초록

This study defines provocation as an act of projecting physical violence, chosen by states through strategic assessment in the crisis phase between conflict and war. States determine their provocative actions according to two decisive factors: whether the issue at stake is vital and the degree of vulnerability to retaliation. Based on these factors, the study constructs an analytical framework consisting of four types of provocation: plausible grey-zone, terrorism (sponsorship and support), skirmish, and guerrilla warfare. Each type is distinguished by whether the state takes direct or indirect action, and whether combatants or non-combatants are employed. First, the presence of vital issues, lead to strategies of responsibility avoidance or responsibility acceptance. Second, depending on the degree of retaliation vulnerability, it leads to strategies of control reinforcement or proxy attack. The Indo-Pakistani dyad—marked by repeated physical clashes and military conflict—is selected for the case studies, focusing on Pakistan’s provocation actions. Through this analysis, it seeks to identify the systemic framework in which states employ violence in crises according to strategic considerations.

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