국내 부동산시장의 구조변화와 가격·거래·심리·미분양 지표의 역할 변화

초록

This study examines how the relationships among housing prices, transactions, sentiment, unsold units and macro‑financial variables have changed across major shocks in Korea, including the global financial crisis, the savings bank crisis, COVID‑19 and the recent PF distress. Using monthly data from 2007–2024, we detect structural breaks via CUSUM and Chow tests and compare regime‑specific regression coefficients and VECM‑based long‑run and short‑run dynamics. Results show that unsold units respond more sensitively to supply‑demand imbalances in crisis periods with concentrated supply and credit risk, while their adjustment role weakens in normal and policy‑driven periods as prices, transactions and sentiment absorb a larger share of adjustments, implying time‑varying interactions among key housing indicators.

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