가계의 여유자금 부동산 투자 결정 요인에 관한 연구 : 부동산자산 보유를 고려한 이변량 프로빗 모형 분석

초록

This study empirically examines the determinants of household real estate investment decision using data from the 2024 Survey of Household Finances and Living Conditions conducted by Statistics Korea. Unlike previous studies focusing on the determinants of real estate ownership or asset ratios, this study assumes that investment and ownership decisions in real estate are interconnected . To address this relationship, a bivariate probit model is employed. The estimation results show a correlation coefficient of −0.203 between the error terms of the two decision equations, which is statistically significant at the 1% level. This suggests that unobserved factors influence real estate investment and ownership decisions in opposite ways. The results of the marginal effect estimation show that households located in the Seoul Metropolitan Area have about a 5.6% greater likelihood of investing in real estate. In contrast, owner-occupied households have an approximately 8.1% lower probability of investing compared with renter households. Notably, a rise in income boosts the likelihood of owning real estate by about 10%, and households with married couples have about a 13% higher likelihood of owning a house than single-adult households. While real estate investment and ownership decisions are distinct, they are linked through unobserved factors.

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