The Rank Effect in Multimember District Elections

초록

In this paper, I estimate the effects of first rank using a regression discontinuity design in the context of three multimember district (MMD) elections, in Korea, Spain, and Japan. By analyzing MMD elections, I can estimate the effects of first rank separately from those of incumbency because there are multiple winners with different ranks. The results indicate that there is no first-rank effect on the outcomes of subsequent elections in any of the three cases. However, I do find evidence that achieving first rank increases candidates' probabilities of running for and winning higher office. In addition, I show that the first-rank effect on political advancement is likely to be driven by political parties, not by voters.

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