Institutionalization without integration: Bitcoin after the spot ETF

초록

This study examines how the spot Bitcoin ETF era is associated with changes in Bitcoin’s connectedness with traditional assets. Using a frequency-dependent TVP-VAR for Bitcoin, the S&P 500, Gold, and VIX over January 2020–October 2025, we distinguish short-horizon spillovers from longer-horizon linkages. Short-term connectedness declines materially in the post-approval period, but long-term connectedness does not increase in an economically meaningful way. Placebo dates indicate that this pattern was already developing during 2023, so we interpret January 10, 2024 as a salient milestone within a broader institutionalization process rather than as a sharp causal breakpoint. Bitcoin also remains a net receiver of spillovers and fails standard safe-haven tests during stress. Critically, this safe-haven failure is no weaker after the ETF than before it: Bitcoin’s connectedness with equities rises rather than falls as volatility increases, just as it did during pre-ETF stress such as the 2020 COVID crash, so institutionalization did not convert Bitcoin into a safe asset. The ETF era appears quieter at short horizons, but Bitcoin’s broader network position – and in particular its standing as a non-safe asset – remains largely unchanged. Highlights •Short-run spillovers decline after spot Bitcoin ETF approval.•Long-run linkages show no economically meaningful increase.•Placebo tests suggest gradual institutionalization, not a sharp event effect.•Bitcoin remains a net spillover receiver and fails safe-haven tests.•Institutionalization did not turn Bitcoin into a safe asset.

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