공간적 상호작용이 프랜차이즈 제과점 점포 성과에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 : 서울시에 위치한 파리바게뜨를 중심으로

초록

The recent franchise bakery market faces limitations in its growth strategy, which has primarily focused on expansion, due to store saturation and strengthened regulations on new store openings. Accordingly, this study empirically analyzed the relationship between the entry and exit characteristics of ‘PARIS BAGUETTE’, a representative franchise bakery, and its store survival performance in Seoul, using a spatial econometric model. Spatial data for Seoul was constructed at 500m grid units, and key factors such as population, transportation accessibility, competitor brands, surrounding facilities, and inter-store distance were analyzed. The analysis revealed that the Spatial Error Model(SEM), which reflects spatial dependence, showed the highest explanatory power. Transportation accessibility, competitor brand density, and self-cannibalization factors were found to be closely related to store survival. In particular, high spatial concentration was observed in the southern and central regions(Gangnam, Seocho, Junggu), while the northern and eastern regions showed low survival rates and negative spatial correlation, confirming an imbalance in commercial areas between regions. This study is significant in quantitatively elucidating the spatial structure of the franchise bakery industry and providing empirical evidence for location strategy formulation to both ‘PARIS BAGUETTE’ franchise headquarters and franchise owners.

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