2025년 9･7 주택담보대출비율(LTV) 강화 정책 효과 분석

초록

This study examines the short-term price and transaction responses of Seoul’s apartment market to the tightening of the loan-to-value (LTV) cap in regulated areas from 50% to 40%, announced on September 7, 2025 and implemented on September 8, 2025. Using a quasi-experimental design comparing regulated and non-regulated areas, it employs Difference-in-Differences (DID) and event study analyses to estimate policy effects on average and their dynamic patterns. The DID results show that, for the full sample, apartment prices in regulated areas increased by about 10% relative to those in non-regulated areas in the short run, while transaction volumes tended to decline. Significant price responses are more evident for semi-old apartments (21–30 years) and old apartments (31 years or older), whereas declines in transaction volumes are relatively more pronounced for new apartments (10 years or less) and semi-old apartments. Event study results indicate that price responses were concentrated in the weeks immediately after the policy shock, while transaction volumes declined with a lag. Some subsamples, however, show significant pre-period coefficients, suggesting that the results should be interpreted cautiously. Thus, the findings are better understood not as strict evidence of a single causal effect, but as evidence on the direction and short-term dynamics of market adjustment. Overall, the study suggests that the short-term effects of housing finance regulation were selective, heterogeneous, and dynamic across housing segments.

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