Transition to an unbalanced Sports League schedule: adding the analysis of outcome uncertainty

초록

We extend the literature on unbiased estimators of sports league outcomes to include outcome uncertainty. While competitive balance and outcome uncertainty are related, generally, they are not the same thing. We show that an extant unbiased estimator of competitive balance, and our new unbiased estimator of outcome uncertainty, bear this out. The impacts on both competitive balance and outcome uncertainty, moving from a balanced to an unbalanced schedule, are demonstrated via numerical analysis. Finally, the unbiased estimators are employed to test the implications of our numerical analysis on the move by the Scottish Professional Football League to an unbalanced schedule. Results conform to our simulations.

키워드