한국의 최빈개도국 대상 특혜관세제도의 교역효과 분석

초록

We empirically analyze the trade effect of the preferential trade arrangement (PTA) of Korea for least developed countries(LDCs). In 2000, Korea launched PTA that allows duty-free and quota-free market (DFQF) access to LDCs. Korea has granted DFQF access to LDCs and extended preferences for LDCs since 2012. However, imports from LDCs account for less than 1% of Korea’s total imports. We incorporate Silva and Tenreyro(2006)’s PPML method in the traditional gravity model for unilateral preferential schemes as in Gil-Pareja, et al.(2014) to address “zeros” in trade data and the endogeneity issues between trade and trade agreements. An empirical study of Korean 2000-2020 disaggregated import data shows that DFQF failed to increase LDCs’ exports. Korea needs to reform DFQF and design mutually beneficial trade agreements for LDCs.

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