Unholy Trinity in Nuclear Deterrence:Three Dilemmas of Nuclear Weapons

초록

Nuclear deterrence has been an issue of great policy relevance these days, but there are few works about its mechanism in the new century. This paper explores various aspects in nuclear deterrence and examines the indeterminacy in the consequences of nuclear proliferation. The first dilemma is a credibility gap, where states cannot use the nuclear weapons because they are too destructive to use for deterrence. The second is a targeting dilemma, which is the absence of the optimal target in deterrence. Civilian targets are easy but meaningless, while military targets are useful but dangerous. The last dilemma is a stability-instability paradox. Nuclear deterrence works so well that states are more likely to fight conventional wars. Choices over these dilemmas determine nuclear postures and their consequences in the real world.

키워드