Quantifying the economic viability of green hydrogen production via proton exchange membrane electrolysis under uncertainties in renewable energy supply and cost

초록

Mitigating climate change demands a transition from fossil fuel-based energy sources to renewable energy sources. However, the inherent intermittency of renewable energy poses challenges to grid stability. In this context, power-to-hydrogen technologies, particularly proton exchange membrane electrolysis (PEMEL), are promising because they convert excess renewable energy into storable green hydrogen. Despite its operational flexibility and high-purity hydrogen output, PEMEL faces issues in commercialization because of its high capital and operational costs. This study employs a comprehensive techno-economic and uncertainty analyses to evaluate the impacts of various renewable energy sources and cost structures on the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Monte Carlo simulations reveal that capital expenditure variations cause the LCOH to vary between 3.92 and 4.77 USD/kg H2, and operational expenditure fluctuations result in its variation between 3.56 and 5.34 USD/kg H2. The analysis highlights the critical cost drivers, including the price of precious metal catalysts, renewable energy capacity factors, and integration of hybrid renewable systems. Strategic recommendations to reduce the LCOH include maximizing sales of oxygen as a by-product, advancing the use of non-precious metal catalysts, optimizing the membrane thickness, and leveraging hybrid solar–wind systems to stabilize the energy input. This study not only provides a roadmap for reducing the PEMEL-associated costs but also underscores the need for targeted technological advancements toward the broader adoption of green hydrogen. © 2026 Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

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