비선형 ARDL(NARDL)을 활용한 주택공급의 비대칭 영향에 관한 연구

초록

This study empirically analyzes the determinants of housing supply by applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to identify asymmetric responses in the housing market. The analysis covers the Seoul metropolitan apartment market from January 2013 to September 2024, with housing supply as the dependent variable. The main explanatory variables include housing prices, construction costs, mortgage rates, land prices, gross domestic product (GDP), gross national income (GNI), and policy dummy variables representing the Moon Jae-in administration’s August 2 Real Estate Measures and the Yoon Suk-yeol administration’s 2.7 Million Housing Supply Plan. The results reveal that changes in housing prices exert asymmetric effects on housing supply. Supply increases gradually during periods of rising prices but contracts sharply during price declines, suggesting that developers respond more sensitively to market uncertainty. Rising construction costs, interest rates, and land prices were found to suppress supply, whereas GDP and household income positively affected it. In conclusion, housing supply does not respond linearly or symmetrically to economic and policy changes. The findings provide empirical evidence to support future housing market stabilization and supply policy formulation in Korea.

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