Business-cycle connectedness: the role of directional trade and financial linkages

초록

This paper examines the directional drivers of international business-cycle connectedness by disaggregating trade and financial integration into their directional components. Using a pairwise directional connectedness measure, we quantify macroeconomic spillovers across 30 OECD countries from 2001 to 2023. By distinguishing exports from imports and assets from liabilities, we capture asymmetries in exposure to foreign shocks. We find that spillovers are stronger via exports and external liabilities than through imports or asset holdings, underscoring the greater role of external demand and foreign creditors in transmitting fluctuations. These results emphasize the need to account for directionality in international linkages when evaluating macroeconomic interdependence and policy responses.

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