Making the NCG Work: Clarified Goals for Sustainability and Three Steps for Implementation

초록

The 2023 Washington Declaration between South Korea and the U.S. has gained attention not only regionally but also internationally, largely due to the resulting Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG), an unprecedented and differentiated nuclear security framework. The NCG could serve as a new model for extended deterrence, distinct from general extended deterrence and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)- tailored extended deterrence. With the NCG in place, it is time to ask how to make it as effective as possible. Ideally, the NCG should enhance the credibility of the U.S. nuclear umbrella with both the domestic audience of South Korea and the nuclear decision-makers in North Korea. The anticipated benefits of the NCG would be attainable under a concrete implementation plan and clearly articulated objectives. This paper argues the NCG should clarify the primary goal of countering North Korean nuclear threats and the secondary pursuit of expanding peaceful uses of nuclear technologies aimed at sustainability. While secondary, this aim is not unimportant; the NCG has the potential for far-reaching benefits beyond just nuclear deterrence. Clarified goals should be embedded in a concrete implementation plan based on three steps: agenda- setting, institutionalization, and operationalization. These clarified goals and three steps would enable reciprocal implementation, making the NCG stable and effective.

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