한국 주식 수익률에 대한 Extreme 분포의 적용 가능성에 관하여

초록

Weekly minima of daily log returns of Korean composite stock price index 200 and its five industry-based business divisions over the period from January 1990 to December 2005 are fitted using two block-based extreme distributions；Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalized Logistic (GLO). Parameters are estimated using the probability weighted moments. Applicability of two distributions is investigated using the Monte Carlo simulation based empirical p-values of Anderson Darling test. Our empirical results indicate that both the GLO and GEV models seem to be comparably applicable to the weekly minima. These findings are against the evidences in Gettinby et al. [7], who claimed that the GEV model was not valid in many cases, and supported the significant superiority of the GLO model.

키워드