The Impacts of US Foreign Policy on Taiwanese Public Support for Independence

초록

It is often argued that the United States should abandon its longstanding policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan-an equivocal position concerning whether the United States would militarily intervene to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by mainland China. Against this background, we tested the validity of this strategic ambiguity and the putative impact of Washington's departure from it by conducting a novel survey experiment in Taiwan. Ultimately, we found that Washington's departure would significantly influence Taiwanese support for independence only if Beijing were to rely on coercion falling short of the direct use of force. However, if China were to launch direct assaults on Taiwan, only a limited number of Taiwanese respondents reported that they would support de jure independence, regardless of Washington's position. Based on these findings, we argue that Taiwanese aspirations for independence are fairly conditional and pragmatic. Further, while Washington's shift toward strategic clarity might heighten the prospect of a cross-strait crisis, a shift toward strategic abandonment might engender the "Finlandization" of Taiwan. We therefore conclude that China is highly unlikely to relinquish the option of employing force against Taiwan for the foreseeable future.

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