Testing the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Football Leagues: An Application of Italian Football League

초록

We applied a three-dimensional panel data model of individual match attendance, while controlling for all nuisance variables affecting the home team, visiting team, and season, to the panel dataset of the Italian football league from 2000/2001 to 2016/2017. We attempted to construct a European-specific attendance regression model that takes into account the ‘open’ league structure, as well as inter-league competitions. In particular, we consider three types of outcome uncertainty: game uncertainty, relegation uncertainty, and Champions League qualification uncertainty. Our empirical results do not support the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis respect to game uncertainty and Champions League qualification uncertainty. However, the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis cannot be rejected with respect to relegation uncertainty. © 2021 Global Alliance of Marketing & Management Associations (GAMMA).

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