정부청사 이전에 따른 과천시 주택가격 변화 분석

초록

This study examines the impact of the relocation of the Government Complex from Gwacheon to Sejong City on housing prices in Gwacheon. Treating the relocation as an exogenous policy shock, we use transaction-level data from July 2008 to December 2016 and employ a Difference-in-Differences (DID) framework combined with an Event Study approach. The results show that housing prices in Gwacheon declined significantly relative to comparable regions during the announcement, relocation, and post-relocation periods. The Event Study indicates that the price premium in Gwacheon gradually diminished and turned negative. Although some differences in pre-treatment trends are observed, the extended DID model controlling for group-specific trends produces consistent results. Within-city analysis finds limited differences between areas near and far from the government complex, suggesting that the impact was not localized. Overall, the relocation led to a structural reduction in the existing price premium rather than a uniform decline in housing prices, with effects emerging gradually over time.

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