지표채권인 국채의 유동성 개선 방안

초록

In order to finance and minimize the cost of financial restructuring, the government took various steps to improve the market infrastructure of the government bond markets after 1997. Thanks to these infrastructure-building efforts, the liquidity of the government bond markets has been rapidly increased recently. Despite this achievement, however, the government bond markets in Korea faces a new challenge. With the fiscal deficit projected to return to balance, the supply of outstanding government bonds is likely to decline, reducing the overall supply of benchmark in the long run. Under various assumptionsof fiscal projections, we forecast the liquidity of the benchmark bonds over the next 10 years and find that without additional issuances of government bonds or other offsetting measures, the liquidity of benchmark bonds will deteriorate considerably in the near future. To alleviate this potential liquidity problem, we suggest to consolidate a portion of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Stabilization Bonds (MSB) into government bonds and allow the MSBs to be the short-term benchmark bond while assigning the KTB to serve as the long-term benchmark.