사회서비스 노동자의 노조 가입 및 가입 의향에 관한 종단적 패널 연구

초록

This study investigates why social service workers, despite the sector’s growth, remain in poor conditions by analyzing the determinants of their union membership and intentions to join, and whether these relationships shift across presidential administrations. Using unbalanced panel data (KLIPS waves 21~26), we estimate random-effects panel probit models with variables capturing union instrumentality, wages, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, workplace-union presence, establishment type and government period. Workplace-union presence is the strongest driver of actual membership, showing that in this fragmented sector the supply of unions outweighs individual demand. Non-members’ intention to join depends on instrumentality, wages, job satisfaction, organisational commitment and government period; it declines overall under the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, with significant interactions for job satisfaction and organisational commitment. These results indicate that policy shifts meaningfully shape workers’ propensity to unionise, while weak bargaining structures and limited institutional support remain major barriers. Strengthening collective-bargaining frameworks and addressing “frustrated demand for union” are therefore urgent.

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