2020년 팬데믹 발생 전후 미국 기준금리와 주요 경제지표 간의 상관성 연구

초록

Purpose This study empirically analyzes the correlation relationship between U.S. key rate and major economic indicators before and after the 2020 pandemic. Methods Daily records from Oct. of 2018 to Sep. of 2022 are collected and analyzed upon U.S. key rate, nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, consumer price index, ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index, CB consumer confidence, and NAHB housing market index. By applying multiple regression, decision tree, and random forest models, the main effects and synergistic effects of economic indicators are identified. Results The economic indicators show significant correlations with the key rate. The correlations of many indicators have different directionality for before-pandemic and after-pandemic. The key rate maintained still from early 2020 to early 2022 and then has been steeply rising, which caused chaotic pattern on the correlation. Conclusion The findings of this study reveal insight about the correlation relationship between key rate and economic indicators as well as about the anticipation of upcoming economic changes.

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