부산광역시 빈집 발생에 영향을 미치는 지역요인 분석

초록

In recent years, Busan has experienced both population decline and an aging housing stock. To examine how regional characteristics shape the expansion of vacant housing, this study analyzedd panel data from 16 districts observed between 2016 and 2023. This analysis used seven explanatory variables: extinction risk index, proportion of aged dwellings, housing supply rate, land price index, share of single-person households, proportion of foreign residents, and net migration indicator. To address heterogeneity across space and time, a two-way fixed-effects model was estimated with cluster-robust standard errors to ensure reliable inferences. The results indicated that a higher extinction risk, greater share of aged housing, and higher housing supply rate are all associated with increased vacancy rates. This suggests that structural factors, such as demographic decline, housing obsolescence, and supply imbalance, jointly drive the expansion of vacant homes. By contrast, the shares of single-person households, foreign residents, and net migration were statistically insignificant. This likely reflects Busan’s spatial heterogeneity: low-income older adult singles in the old inner city coexist with young middle-class singles in the newer urban areas, while industrial worker zones and high-income expatriate neighborhoods offset each other’s effects. Overall, the findings reveal that the vacancy issue in Busan stems from overlapping structural imbalances, rather than isolated market trends. By integrating demographic, housing, and economic dimensions, this study provides empirical insights into the city’s spatial disparities and offers a foundation for formulating more resilient area-specific housing and urban regeneration policies.

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