Do voters hold the president's party accountable for local economic conditions?

초록

Do voters hold the presidential party accountable for local economic conditions? While some recent studies report positive effects, others find little evidence of such accountability. I examine this question by estimating 144 specifications for presidential, U.S. House, gubernatorial, and state house elections, generated from six modeling dimensions. For presidential elections, 61% of specifications yield positive significant effects-evidence of some relationship, but hardly conclusive. The evidence is weaker for other offices: fewer than half show positive effects for House and state house elections, and only 12% for gubernatorial races. These findings cast doubt on whether voters systematically blame or reward the presidential party for local economic conditions. Methodologically, they highlight how conventional robustness checks may fail to address the multiplicity problem inherent in specification choices.

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