부도위험을 고려한 재정의 지속가능성 평가

초록

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium growth model incorporating endogenous default risk to assess Korea’s fiscal balance, national debt, and fiscal capacity over the next 50 years, considering projected population declines. Endogenous default risk generates a nonlinearity triggered by surpassing a certain national debt threshold, leading to a sharp deterioration in fiscal balance and a significant increase in government bond yield spreads, which severely undermines fiscal capacity and sustainability. In the baseline scenario, fiscal soundness could be significantly impaired due to an increased risk of sovereign default, as the national debt-to-GDP ratio approaches 60 percent. Mitigating the decline in the working-age population could lower perceived sovereign default risk, thereby stabilizing the debt-to-GDP ratio and enhancing fiscal soundness.

키워드