서울시 주택 증여의 자연적ㆍ전략적 결정 구조와 하위시장 이질성 분석

초록

This study conceptualizes housing gifts in Seoul as a phenomenon jointly shaped by natural transfers—long-term intergenerational wealth transfers driven by aging and asset accumulation—and strategic transfers that respond to policy and market conditions. Using a balanced monthly panel of Seoul’s 25 districts from 2015 to 2024, the analysis employs Two-Way Fixed Effects (TWFE), Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV), hierarchical cluster analysis, and cluster-interaction TWFE models, with district-level unsold housing inventory as a supply-side proxy. Three main findings emerge. First, natural factors show limited explanatory power in short-run within- variation but are reflected in persistent baseline differences across districts, suggesting long-term structural effects. Second, housing gifts were approximately 37 percent lower during periods of speculative overheating district designation, with the magnitude varying across submarket clusters. Third, the average effect of unsold inventory was statistically insignificant, reflecting offsetting responses across submarkets: mid-tier clusters showed increased gift activity through substitution away from sales markets, whereas high-asset clusters reduced gifts through deferred transfers under weakened price expectations. Overall, housing gifts in Seoul are better understood as outcomes of heterogeneous submarkets where natural and strategic transfer mechanisms interact differently. These findings suggest that housing policy should account for differences in asset structures, market liquidity, and supply-side frictions across submarkets.

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